Macopinion

Too Much?

by Marc Zeedar macopinion@designwrite.com

Traditionally Apple makes the complex simple, and they make simple look easy. It's not. Simple is extremely difficult. Yet look at the beautiful PowerPC-to-Intel transition, which made the relatively smooth 68K-to-PPC transition a few years earlier seem rocky and awkward in comparison.

But Apple's got more happening right now than ever before in its history. Now only is its computer business booming, but it's still selling millions of iPods a quarter and operating the most successful digital media store on the planet. Apple is running a global chain of successful retail stores -- possibly the most successful of any retailer (on a per-square-foot basis). Apple is churning out fantastic consumer- and professional-level software every year, from iWeb to Final Cut Pro. All this while earning record revenue and profits, sending its stock soaring. It seems Apple has it made.

But when most companies would be content to sit back and enjoy the ride, Apple isn't sitting still. We've got a new version of Mac OS X coming this spring. At the same time, Apple's much anticipated AppleTV should be shipping soon, and of course there's the monster down the street in the upcoming iPhone. That's three revolutionary products shipping within a six-month period.

How can Apple do it?

Or can it? AppleTV has been delayed. Only slightly, and we aren't sure why. It could merely be an FCC certification-related technicality, perhaps a manufacturing glitch, or maybe it's just to meet the higher-than-expected demand.

There are rumors that Leopard, the new version of Mac OS X supposed to be shipping this spring, is buggy and has a lot of problems. Earlier rumors had predicted a March ship date, but that's seeming unlikely now, with test seeds of the beta proving to have a lot of flaws. Are we shooting for April or May? And if that slips into June, is that still considered spring? (While technically it is, most people think of June as the start of summer.)

Apple's stock took a multi-million dollar tumble when the AppleTV delay was announced. What will happen if Leopard is delayed?

Most frightening of all, what if the iPhone is delayed?

The iPhone's a revolutionary product. It involves a ton of new technology with extremely sophisticated software working behind the scenes. Word is that journalists fortunate enough to get their hands on an iPhone for a few minutes after the Macworld Expo discovered that many aspects of the phone -- such as the Calendar feature -- didn't work at all and were merely photographic placeholders instead of the actual feature. Does that mean the software just wasn't written or was it just too buggy for the prototype?

Apple's never made a cell phone before. While I'm sure they've hired the right people and planned out every detail and tried to think of every contingency, it wouldn't be that surprising if some minor problem or two slipped in and delayed things slightly.

Normally that'd be nothing to worry about -- a delay of a weeks in a product as sophisticated as iPhone is nothing.

The problem is Apple's got a lot of hungry eyes watching it right now. Greedy companies and scummy journalists are just waiting for the slightly sign of weakness, any hint of failure, and they'll pounce on it.

Apple's also started advertising the iPhone with their cool "Hello" teaser during the Academy Awards. The ad reminds us that the iPhone's "coming in June."

Of course this is just the beginning of a promotional blitz that's going to make the iPhone the biggest rollout of any product in history. Already Apple's reported to have gained $400 million in free publicity after the Macworld unveiling -- and that was just to demo a prototype few could even touch. When journalists can actually use an iPhone you know there are going to be countless articles and cover photos (here's betting that Time or Newsweek are negotiating with Steve on an exclusive right now).

And what's going to happen when Cingular gets on the bandwagon and starts encouraging switchers and its existing customers to go iPhone?

All this puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the company to meet its announced schedule. With Steve Jobs' infamous perfectionism running things, can you imagine his ire if things aren't just perfect? Would you like to be the messenger to tell him a glitch -- a hard-to-find software bug, a supplier screwing up, a factory in Korea burning down, a lawyer forgetting to cross a T, the FCC dragging their feet -- will delay production a few weeks?

Just getting the iPhone out on time as promised will be a huge achievement -- yet Apple's simultaneously working on AppleTV, Mac OS X Leopard, and who knows what else. (Remember, Leopard will probably also mean a slew of updated iApps, even if they're just a facelift.)

Apple's done some amazing things the past few years and has more potential than just about any company in the world. But the higher Apple climbs, the more dangerous the situation. With every billion in new revenue the Apple target gets larger and the competition gets more desperate. Many are watching for the slightest crack in the dam. As the going gets tougher, it's actually more critical that Apple doesn't mess up under the increased scrutiny. Like an Olympic athlete who's made it to the finals, this is crunch time. A fall here and everyone will know about it. The potential for disaster is huge. Billions and billions of dollars are at stake. Apple's whole future could be contingent upon the iPhone launch.

I actually believe Apple can juggle all these projects. If any company can, it's Apple. It's not going to be easy, but Steve's a visionary and he's been planning these rollouts for a long time. His perfectionism means that product quality is high throughout the development. Potential problems have been anticipated and contingencies are ready. Apple's got the engineering and manufacturing talent, money, and clout to make this happen.

What worries more than Apple actually stumbling is just how the media will distort the slightest misstep. If the iPhone ships on June 29 you just know some sleazy reporter will write that it's a delay since it didn't ship June first.

Of course if the iPhone's a success, regardless of any imagined failure, all the naysayers will be forgotten. That's Apple's best revenge.

In the meantime, take a deep breath as the new few months are going to be awesome. I'm so excited!

macopinion@designwrite.com