Tuesday, May 20, 2008

New MacBook Scuttlebutt Complicates System Upgrade Equation

To jump or not to jump? I'm really getting the third-year itch these days to upgrade to another computer. It's been nearly 27 months since I bought my current workhorse, which wasn't exactly state- of- the-art at the time of purchase, being a 1.33 GHz PowerBook G4 - a model that originally debuted in September, 2003. Mine was a pristine, evidently very lightly or even unused Apple Certified Refurbished unit, but already old technology at the beginning of the MacIntel era in early 2006.

I deliberately chose to go with one more Power PC Mac before making the Intel transfer, and I haven't regretted my decision. The 17-inch PowerBook has been a rock, completely dependable with zero reliability issues or downtime, and powerful enough to keep me reasonably happy, at least until recently. However, while it runs OS X 10.5 Leopard decently enough that I haven't seriously considered going back to OS 10.4 Tiger, which I easily could since I still have Tiger installed on a separate partition of my hard drive, the aging G4 does struggle a bit with Leopard, and some of the newer software that's been released recently is also taxing its capabilities - Photoshop elements 6 and the Bridge being good cases in point.

Then there's software that won't run on the PowerBook at all, like MacSpeech's Dictate. The proverbial writing on the wall is becoming clearer; it's time to get serious about upgrading to an Intel 'Book.

The one that has been tempting me in particular lately is the Apple Certified Refurbished Penryn 2.4 GHz white MacBook with a 160 GB HD, 2 GB of RAM, and a DVD-burner, which Apple Canada is currently offering on their Apple Store Special Deals page for Can$1049.00, or the same price as a new base 2.1 GHz MacBook with a 120 GB HD, a combo drive and 1 MB RAM here in the Great White North, and interestingly also the exact same price as the same refurbished unit at the US online Apple Store, which is as it should be with the respective dollars at par, but isn't the case with new Apple systems, alas.

Given the excellent service I've gotten with my ACR PowerBook, I'm not apprehensive about buying another Certified Refurbished unit.

However, rumors of a major MacBook redesign coming with the next refresh keep gaining traction, with reports out of the far east trade media late last week that contracts have been awarded to two Taiwanese subcontractors to supply flat screen displays for a new MacBook. Last Friday, the Taiwanese trade journal Commercial Times reported that the nation's top two flat-panel makers by revenue, AU Optronics and Chi Mei Optoelectronics, will split LCD panel orders from Apple for a new redesigned MacBook, which is projected for release sometime in Q3 2008, possibly in time for the back-to-school season this summer.

While technical details, and for that matter a new-design MacBook release itself, are highly speculative, logical deduction would incline us to anticipate a strong probability that a redesigned MacBook would feature an aluminum case and incorporate a slimmed form factor and styling themes introduced with the MacBook Air in a somewhat less extreme and more functionally practical package.

That would be exciting news for those of us enticed by the MacBook Air's sliver-thin form factor and bold styling, but who have been unable to rationalize making the functional compromises that the feature, connectivity, and upgradability challenged Air demands.

If Apple can manage to engineer a consumer laptop in the MacBook Air design motif, but with a real, 2.5" notebook hard drive, upgradeable RAM, a quick-swap replaceable battery, built-in Ethernet and FireWire ports and more than a single USB 2 port, they should have a winner on their hands, and I expect I would be suffering severe buyer-remorse two or three months from now if I went ahead and purchased a Penryn MacBook now.

With the flat-panel OEM contracts reported above being let, LED backlit displays are presumably a given, and the fact that the current MacBook still has a conventional CCFL display backlight is a factor also holding me back. That aspect alone could make it worth waiting.

Other good bets would include incorporation of Intel's latest-generation "Montevina" Core 2 Duo processors of up to perhaps 2.6 GHz which are projected to begin shipping next month, along with a front side bus speed upgrade to 1 GHz, plus more powerful and less compromised Intel GMA X4500 integrated graphics, both of which are also going to be significant improvements over the current MacBook spec., and a DVD-burning optical drive for the entry-level machine.

Potential downsides might be if Apple decides to dispense with FireWire connectivity in the new consumer notebooks, as some have speculated, but IMHO would be highly unfortunate and possible a deal-breaker. It is also to be hoped that one of the most desirable characteristics of the original MacBook - the wonderful ease of swapping hard drives in and out - will be retained, although I think that may be a very long shot if Apple goes with the sort of "monocoque" case design pioneered with the MacBook Air. That would be a disappointment, but not a deal-breaker for me, at least so long as the hard drive remained as accessible as the MacBook Air's is. Another possible omission would be to follow the MacBook Air's motif with an external optical drive, possibly optional. In my estimation, that's something I could probably live with although not especially happily, and I think in general it would be and unwise move from a marketing perspective.

A general criticism of the MacBook Air, and I think a fair one, has been that the functional compromises in pursuit of its extreme form factor were taken several degrees too far. The purchaser demographic for the MacBook is likely to be less willing to make practical functionality sacrifices in aid of aesthetics than MacBook Air buyers have been.

There's also the "early adopter" bogey. I have a provisional policy of never buying the first release of any product if I can help it, although this instance may be compelling enough to make an exception. One advantage of the current MacBooks in this context is that they are presumably thoroughly debugged and mature products, which is a strong argument in their favor.

The way I see it, at least today, is that the sensible course to chart is to muster my patience and stick with my G4 PowerBook for a few months yet. While its sluggishness running Leopard is, as I noted, beginning to be more than a minor annoyance, it's still a pretty satisfying tool to work with, and its anvil-like reliability is nothing to be sniffed at. I just hope Apple gets those new MacBooks out the door as quickly as the rumoristas are suggesting.

It will be ironic if I end up buying a Penryn MacBook, anyway - something I'm definitely not ruling out, but I want to be able make an informed decision. With a nominal three-year system upgrade cycle, it's a long time to live with whatever one chooses.


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cmoore@macopinion.com

Posted by Charles in • Road Warrior
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