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New iPhone?

by Marc Zeedar macopinion@designwrite.com

Everyone seems convinced Steve Jobs will announce a new iPhone next week at WWDC and the speculation is wild as to what new features it will include: 3G cellular support, GPS, new design, etc. While I'll admit the evidence is strong that a new phone will be introduced -- one cannot ignore the low supply of the current model or indicators like AT&T's "no June/July vacations" memo to staff -- I am not convinced this new phone will be radically different from the current model.

As an iPhone user, the best thing about the iPhone is that it's a platform, and simply by installing new software I can get all kinds of new features. Apple already revealed some of the new features of "iPhone 2.0" at the SDK announcement a few months ago, and those features will be available to all current iPhone owners for free (iPod Touch owners will need to pay a small fee as software upgrades are not included for that device). That is awesome.

But if the new iPhone were to be radically different -- you'd have a lot of frustrated owners of the old model who aren't expecting their current model to be obsoleted so quickly (the iPhone is not a normal phone, after all, but a miniature Macintosh).

Granted that's not something Apple has exactly worried about in the past, introducing new computer models and iPods that instantly obsoleted the old, but that generally happens later in the life of a product. I don't doubt the new iPhone hardware will be different and have improvements, but I suspect they'll be minor. If we look back at the history of the iPod for an indication, we see that Apple made evolutionary changes: replacing the mechanical click wheel for an electronic one, increasing storage capacity, adding color screens, making the devices smaller and sleeker, adjusting the price, etc. Always better, but the basic functionality was the same, and old owners didn't exactly feel horrible they were stuck with the old model.

I'm actually not even convinced that the new iPhone does 3G -- it seems premature (I didn't honestly expect it until later in the year) and 3G network coverage is limited -- but everyone seems convinced this is it, so I won't argue. But other than that, I don't expect too much of a change with the hardware. The new iPhone will be thinner with a slightly different case, it might have a better camera, it will have increased storage (16GB will be the minimum size), and it will have an improved battery (which will be offset by the increased power the 3G radio uses). I don't think it will have GPS as it's not necessary and the expense in terms of power is too great.

Another reason not to change things too much: this is WWDC, where the D stands for Developer, which means this conference is about software, not hardware. Whatever new iPhone Apple announces, the key focus will be on the new software the platforms offers, both for users and as a platform for developers. Apple would be foolish to fracture the budding iPhone platform by dividing it further with unique features only available on the newest hardware. Already there are some features that depend on the cellular network that Touch owners can't use; that's enough of a divide for now. (That's also why I don't see the new iPhone adding hardware such as GPS.)

It's also important to remember that the potential of current iPhones has barely been tapped. Not only are third-party apps just arriving, but many of the phone's existing limitations can be solved via a software upgrade: better Bluetooth support could add whole categories of accessory products (i.e. an external keyboard), and there's no reason the current camera couldn't do some form of video. I would expect Apple to improve the iPhone's software before adding complicated new hardware.

Of course the number one reason why the new iPhone will be incremental, not revolutionary, is that the original is so awesome. Apple really did think of all the necessary hardware features in iPhone 1.0 -- the only obvious thing missing is 3G support, which Steve himself said is coming in 2008. If the original version had proven to be seriously lacking somehow, I might expect Apple to make some additions. But the reality is that the current version works so well that even 3G support is primarily wanted by people who haven't used the iPhone (Edge isn't that fast but it's fast enough, especially with the iPhone's superior platform).

The problem is that the media are desperate for another iPhone craze. They want revolutionary and radical like the original iPhone so they can write wild articles and garner huge eyeball counts like last year. Unfortunately, the new iPhone version cannot be that. The revolution happened last year; this version must be an evolution.

Of course none of this means the new version won't be successful or won't be cool; no doubt more than a few current owners will be eager to sell their 1.0 phones on eBay and buy one of the new ones. But the majority of 1.0 owners will simply be delighted by the free software upgrade, the new App Store that delivers thousands of cool third party applications to open all sorts of new capabilities. People who need the new hardware will get it; the rest of us will continue to use our 1.0 iPhones just fine.

Now I could be utterly wrong. My track record at predicting Apple's moves isn't great. Like last year I didn't think they'd release the iPod Touch so soon as I figured they'd concentrate on selling iPhones. (In retrospect it was a smart move: it raised the average selling price of iPods to continue Apple's growth, and the people who didn't need phone functionality have just what they wanted in the Touch.)

But my gut tells me it's media speculation that is fueling the idea that the new iPhone will be some grand new "wow" device. I hereby predict a collected sigh of disappointment at whatever Steve announces, because whatever it is won't match up to the hyped expectations. The stock may take a hit. (It's surely going to be volatile in the days after the announcement as everyone has their take.)

We'll see what happens. Maybe nothing will be announced at all!

macopinion@designwrite.com